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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.