Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
